Backtest Results
2025-26 season performance across 741 games · 1 unit = $100 flat
Edge Threshold Simulator
Drag the slider to set the minimum edge required before placing a bet.
0%5%10%15%20%
5%
Min Edge
| Threshold | Bets | Win Rate | ROI | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 1482 | 54.5% | +4.3% | +63.9u |
| 3% | 895 | 56.2% | +7.6% | +68.0u |
| ▶ 5% | 570 | 57.4% | +10.0% | +56.8u |
| 7% | 301 | 56.8% | +8.7% | +26.3u |
| 10% | 110 | 57.3% | +10.0% | +10.9u |
| 15% | 19 | 57.9% | +14.3% | +2.7u |
Record
327-243
57.4% win rate · click for proof
ROI
+10.0%
570 bets @ $100 flat · click for proof
Flat P&L
$5,684
from 570 × $100 · click for proof
Units Won
+56.84u
$100 flat per bet · click for proof
Cumulative Unit P&L
Monthly Performance
| Month | Bets | W-L | Win% | ROI | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October '25 | 16 | 5-11 | 31.3% | -20.6% | -3.3u |
| November '25 | 165 | 102-63 | 61.8% | +23.6% | +38.9u |
| December '25 | 175 | 93-82 | 53.1% | -0.1% | -0.2u |
| January '26 | 179 | 101-78 | 56.4% | +5.1% | +9.1u |
| February '26 | 35 | 26-9 | 74.3% | +35.3% | +12.3u |